Tesla, Ghost, & Waymo… And the Winner is:
The question that we are asking ourselves is not if or when autonomous driving is going to happen, but rather who will emerge as the “Apple”, the top dog, the one who will lead the industry for 20+ years.
Tesla, Waymo, and Ghost have emerged as the potential “top dog,” but who should investors bet on?
The global autonomous vehicle market is projected to reach $556.67 billion by 2026. Investors must get this right.
Tesla
Tesla led by Elon Musk is experiencing a jump in their stock compared to where they were last year. And I’m not talking about a $100 or $300 jump. Tesla’s stock price has risen over $500! That’s insane, considering that we are going through a recession. Tesla’s jump is attributed to consumers being more conscious about sustainability and Tesla’s ability to somewhat scale-up production.
Tesla stands out to consumers and investors alike because they are producing self-driving and electrically fueled cars. However, customers have to spend an additional $10,000 to utilize Tesla’s self-driving capabilities.
Waymo
Waymo is backed by Alphabet. Yes, the same Alphabet that owns Youtube, Fitbit, and Google. Needless to say, Waymo has an awesome foundation. Waymo differs from both Tesla and Ghost because their sole product is a driver. Waymo currently offers the Waymo One and Waymo Via. Waymo One is an autonomous driving taxi service, and Waymo Via is an autonomous driving solution for moving goods.
Waymo is valued at $30 billion, a notable decrease in their initial valuation of $105 billion by Morgan Stanley back in 2018. This decrease is attributed to Waymo’s inability to generate a profit. Furthermore, Waymo is a scary bet to place because their technology (for the most part) is only available in Phoenix, Arizona. However, it’s also a reason to be bullish on Waymo. Since Waymo isn’t operational in most states and hasn’t prioritized scaling, they have more time to work out any hardware/software issues.
Ghost
Ghost led by John Hayes and Volhmar Uhlig is still in venture funding. Founded in 2017, Ghost has raised $157 million through Series D. Ghost’s approach to self-driving is interesting. Unlike Tesla and Waymo, Ghost retrofits almost any car into a car capable of self-driving.
Ghost plans to launch trial customers this year, with a base price of $3,500. In recent months, Ghost has picked up steam, with Founders Fund’s Keith Rabois, Khosla Ventures’ Vinod Khosla, and Sutter Hill Ventures’ Mike Speiser all investing in the company.
Who should investors bet on?
As we all know, my answer will be biased and based on how I evaluate companies. Depending on how you look at investing, your answer may be different than mine.
To answer this question, I ask myself: “Who has the potential to serve the largest number of customers”
Is it Tesla? No. Although Tesla has adjusted their price to be more competitive with Toyota. The average consumer will not spend an additional $10,000 to have access to self-driving. Nor is it realistic to assume that Tesla will become the everyday joe car.
Is it Waymo? No. Waymo’s inability to scale and generate a profit are both problems typically faced by a startup, not a publicly-traded company. On top of that, Waymo is going after a much smaller segment of the market than even Tesla- Ridesharing.
Is it Ghost? YES! Ghost is the (silent) one to watch because they serve the everyday joe. With a base price of $3,500, it’s hard to imagine consumers that won’t be willing to give this a try. Investors can get in right now and position themselves to receive huge payouts very soon.
